We are confident that the epidemic will be basically controlled by the end of April

Source: China News
How strong is the novel coronavirus pneumonia? What was the initial forecast? What should we learn from this epidemic?
On February 27, the Information Office of Guangzhou municipal government held a special press conference on epidemic prevention and control at Guangzhou Medical University. Zhong Nanshan, leader of the high level expert group of the national health and Health Commission and academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, responded to public concerns.
The epidemic first appeared in China, not necessarily originated in China
Zhong Nanshan: to predict the epidemic situation, we first consider China, not foreign countries. Now there are some situations in foreign countries. The epidemic first appeared in China, not necessarily originated in China.
The epidemic forecast was returned to the authoritative journals
Zhong Nanshan: China’s novel coronavirus pneumonia model has been used in the early stage of epidemic. It is predicted that the number of new crown pneumonia will reach 160 thousand in early February. This is not a consideration of the strong intervention of the state, nor has it considered the delayed resumption after the Spring Festival. We have also made a prediction model, reaching the peak in mid February or late last year, and about six or seventy thousand cases of the confirmed cases. Wei periodical, who was returned, felt that it was too different from the above prediction level. Someone gave me wechat, “you will be crushed in a few days.”. But in fact, our prediction is closer to authority.
Identifying novel coronavirus pneumonia and influenza is very important.
Zhong Nanshan: it’s very important to identify the new coronavirus and influenza in a short period of time, because the symptoms are similar, CT is similar, and this process is very similar. There are many novel coronavirus pneumonia cases, so it is difficult to mix it up in the new crown pneumonia.
There are enough antibodies in the body not to infect again
Zhong Nanshan: at present, we can’t make an absolute conclusion. Generally speaking, the law of virus infection is the same. As long as IgG antibody appears in the body and increases a lot, the patient will not be infected again. As for intestines and faeces, there are still some remains. The patient has his own rules. Now the key is not whether it will infect again, but whether it will infect others, which needs to be focused on.
Not enough attention has been paid to sudden infectious diseases and no continuous scientific research has been carried out
Zhong Nanshan: you are very impressed with the previous SARS, and later you have done a lot of research, but you think it’s an accident. After that, many research departments stopped. We have also done research on mers, and it’s the first time in the world to separate and make a model of mers. We have been doing it all the time, so we have some preparations. But most of them don’t have enough visibility to the sudden infectious diseases, so they haven’t carried out continuous scientific research. My feeling is that I can’t do anything about the treatment of this new disease. I can only use the existing drugs according to many principles. It’s impossible to develop new drugs in such a short period of ten or twenty days, which needs to be accumulated for a long time It reflects the problems of our prevention and control system.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia can infect 2 to 3 people in 1 cases.
Zhong Nanshan: the epidemic situation may be higher than that of SARS. According to the current statistics, about one person can infect between two and three people, indicating that the infection is very fast.
Confident to control the epidemic by the end of April
Zhong Nanshan: my team has made the epidemic forecast model, and the forecast peak should be near the end of February in the middle of February. At that time, no consideration was given to foreign countries. Now, the situation in foreign countries has changed. We need to think about it separately. But in China, we are confident that the epidemic will be basically controlled by the end of April.